Stakeholder-based Scenarios for Post-2012 Climate Policy: A Participatory Approach

Beginning in the early 1970s, the application of scenario analysis to environmental issues has been a well-established field. Since then, environmental scenario analysis has been used to examine many different scales and types of environmental problems, ranging from global sustainability to specific issues such as changes in emissions, air quality, or land cover in a specific region. Environmental scenarios provide an interdisciplinary framework for analyzing complex environmental problems and envisioning solutions for these problems by, for example, establishing a link between environmental science and policy.

We performed a study to define the key elements of feasible global climate policy scenarios for the post-2012 UNFCCC regime by contacting – through a series of questionnaires – 149 stakeholders involved in climate-change discussions. We applied a Multiple Correspondence Analysis to the results. We then classified the stakeholders' views into three main groups which we associate with scenarios for post-2012 climate policy. Further, we identified three points with wide consensus among the stakeholders: (i) 2013 is the most likely starting point for the next climate agreement, (ii) flexibility mechanisms will most probably be pursued, and (iii) technology and financial transfers to developing countries are likely to be used as incentives for these countries to undertake a more meaningful climate policy. We found that the type of target for the United States largely determined the type of scenario the stakeholders' envisaged for the post-2012 climate regime. Finally, we can associate stakeholders with a certain scenario taking into consideration their experience in climate change negotiations

Copyright: © Lexxion Verlagsgesellschaft mbH
Quelle: Issue 3/2009 (Oktober 2009)
Seiten: 13
Preis inkl. MwSt.: € 41,65
Autor: Ronal Gainza-Carmenates
J. Carlos Altamirano-Cabrera
Philippe Thalmann
J. Luis Carrasco-Terceros

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Aufbereitungs- und Behandlungs-
technologien, TU Braunschweig

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